The government’s National Risk Register is essential reading for risk practitioners. Anthony Connolly, strategic risk consultant at Aon, and Andrew Millard, public sector practice leader – North, explain how it can inform your organisation’s risk mitigation strategy.
Being prepared for any risk is essential, especially with the last few years delivering unexpected events such as a pandemic, conflict in Europe and a cost-of-living crisis. Understanding which risks an organisation faces is the first step in any risk mitigation strategy.
The government’s National Risk Register (NRR) (1), which is its assessment of the most serious risks facing the UK, is a valuable reference tool for risk and resilience practitioners across the public and private sectors. First launched in 2008 as part of the National Security Strategy, the latest version was published in January 2025. It identifies 89 risks that would have a substantial impact on the UK’s safety, security, and/or critical systems at a national level. These risks are grouped within nine themes, including terrorism, cyber, natural and environmental hazards, and accidents and systems failures.
Pandemic is this year’s most likely (5%-25% likelihood), catastrophic impact risk, followed by larger scale CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear) attacks and the failure of the National Electricity Transmission System (1%-5%). Risks regarded as having the highest probability (greater than 25%) include terrorist attacks in publicly accessible locations, Northern Ireland related terrorism and the assassination of a high-profile figure.
While the NRR forms a valuable reference tool, public sector organisations must focus on their own issues when building their risk mitigation strategies. Some of the risks outlined in the register will be outside of their remit, while others, that didn’t make the list, will require much more attention.
To build a strategy that meets the needs of your organisation, we recommend the following steps:
While the NRR will help to direct thinking on public sector organisations’ own risk registers, it is also important to factor in local influences. Coastal flooding is an obvious example but, similarly, the risk profile of a local authority in a rural part of the country will be very different to that of an urban one with a major conurbation.
Understanding the nature of the organisation will allow it to dial up or down its preparations for the risks listed in the NRR. This exercise could also help it identify additional threats that didn’t make the government’s list.
The risk landscape is constantly evolving as changes in everything from the population to the way people behave require different mitigation strategies. We’ve seen this with our high streets as footfall switches to online shopping, and with transport as the shift to working from home and hybrid working reduces demand for public transport.
The ageing population is likely to feature on most organisations’ risk registers. Government figures indicate that while 19% of the UK population was aged 65 plus in 2019, this proportion is set to rise to 24% by 2043, equivalent to 17.4m people (2). The growth of this demographic will require forward-planning across areas such as housing, infrastructure and health and social care to ensure its needs are met.
An organisation may have its own unique set of risks and strategies to manage them but it’s very likely that some will be shared with neighbouring authorities. This might be the case with anything from coastal flooding to the provision of adult social care.
Combining knowledge and experience can save time and money, but it can also prevent issues that might arise if each body works in isolation. For example, anyone living on the boundary would be aware of the difference in approaches and, if markedly different, this could lead to reputational damage and even unrest.
As well as working with similar organisations, it’s also worth considering how your approach might affect others, in both the public and private sectors. For example, liaising or partnering with retirement housing specialists could help augment existing plans to support the ageing population.
It’s also prudent to go further when seeking guidance or assurance on your approach to risk. Organisations such as ALARM, the LGA and CIPFA facilitate the sharing of good and best practice between their members.
Local authority leaders should also look to leverage their local knowledge base and professional experience, which may include insights from non-executive directors, universities, and elected councillors.
Whether it’s through one of these associations or on a more informal footing, it’s also good to share failures. Owning a mistake can prevent others taking the same steps but will also help to shape the approach taken in the future.
Organisations can also benefit from the expertise and objectivity of an outsider. At Aon, we specialise in risk, helping organisations to identify, understand and manage it more effectively. Our consultants can assess the way your organisation works and the issues it faces, identifying the key risks and potential solutions to suit your mitigation strategy.
As an example, Aon’s Global Risk Management Survey is a powerful tool in supporting organisations review and benchmark their risks against others within their industry sector. Should you be interested in participating in the 2025 survey, please let us know.
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Go local
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Future-proof the plans
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Speak to neighbours
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Share best practice
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Seek expertise
More information
For more information about the National Risk Register or the risks facing your organisation, speak to your Aon account manager or contact Anthony Connolly or Andrew Millard.
(1) National Risk Register 2025 - GOV.UK
(2) Housing an ageing population: a reading list - House of Commons Library
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This article has been compiled using information available to us up to 25/02/2025
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