Political Risk Map 2016

In its 19th year of analysis, Aon's Political Risk Map is now freely accessible through our new, dedicated portal, enabling those interested in the topic to examine past, future and current trends in global political risk.

The map examines political risk in 162 emerging economies, considering risks through nine risk icons of nine categories (six in print), namely: exchange transfer, sovereign non-payment, political interference, supply chain disruption, legal & regulatory risk, political violence, risk of doing business, banking sector vulnerability and inability of government to provide stimulus.

The portal allows users to drill into specific risks, territories and time periods, providing a comprehensive tool for those interested in understanding the impact of political risks on the global economy.

This year the map has the additional ability to predict the future financial strength of global economies using Roubini's Shadow Credit Rating scores, which reflect a countries ability to repay its sovereign debts.

An improving outlook 

For the first time in three years, improvements in the political risk landscape far outweighed deteriorations. In fact, in 2016 the Political Risk Map counted eight upgrades, against half that many downgrades.

A slowing China and weaker commodity prices are responsible for increased political risk in both Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, although there is cause for cautious optimism in Argentina and Cuba.

In the Middle East and North Africa the oil drag deepens and continues to threaten domestic stability, heightening risk in the region. While in Asia Pacific, anti-corruption campaigns have helped to strengthen economic resilience and reduce political risk.

 

Political Risk - Inforgraphic

 

 

Access the new, free Political Risk portal.