Aon's Political Risk, Terrorism and Political Violence Risk Maps 2019

Political and terrorism risks have continued to evolve throughout the last year, with new ideologies, tactics and targets changing the challenges faced by global businesses. The insights from Aon’s Political Risk and Terrorism & Political Violence maps are helping our clients understand these changing risks and their severity in the UK and other geographies across the world.

Together with our established partners Continuum Economics and The Risk Advisory Group, our experts have identified five key risks for political and terrorism risks in 2019:

Political Risk: Trade Tensions and Rising Populism

Whether due to tariffs or risk of retaliation by governments, trade uncertainty can translate to increasingly costly business transactions with effects extending across the global economy. This year’s analysis highlights:

1. Populism: the rise of populist political ideologies such as Brexit is increasing the prospect of politically-motivated decisions around the world. Political decisions motivated by populist ideologies have the potential to end contracts, stall high-profile projects, and force firms to reconsider their overall supply chain.
2. Trade relations and tariffs: US-China trade tensions are already impacting the global economy and trade tariffs are set to limit fiscal growth, particularly in countries with high levels of public and private debt. If another round of tariffs goes ahead, US GDP is on course for a 0.3 percent contraction by 2023, while China’s is set to shrink by 0.6 percent in the same period.

Terrorism and Political Violence Risk: Increasing Far-Right and Returning Islamic State Terrorism

The definition of “terrorism” is evolving. Whether driven by political, ideological, or religious motivation, or carried out by firearms or bladed weapons, terrorism and political violence tactics and targets are changing. This relatively new low-capability tactic has become the single most lethal form of attack in Western countries. Jihadist militancy remains a threat across the world, as seen during the recent attacks in Sri Lanka, while far-right extremist activity adds another dimension to terrorism risks in Europe and North America. This year’s analysis highlights:

3. Rising far-right terrorism: North America and Europe saw reduced levels of terrorist attacks motivated by Islamist extremism – and an increase in attacks motivated by extreme right-wing ideologies. Far-right terrorism in these regions has doubled since 2016, with groups targeting symbols of multiculturalism.
4. Islamic terrorism - After Islamic State lost territory in Iraq and Syria in 2017, IS’ focus has shifted to other countries with fragile security environments, particularly Afghanistan, Nigeria, and the Philippines. The group and its supporters mounted at least twice as many attacks in these three countries in 2018 compared with the year before.
5. Public spaces remain a target for terrorist attacks. Sixteen terrorist plots against sports and entertainment venues were recorded around the world in 2018, and spaces attracting large numbers of people remain particularly sensitive to terrorism risk.

Download the full report now to identify the key risks in your regions of operation, create personalised reports, or download the entire report.

You can also sign-up to our webinar, where our experts will be discussing the findings and commercial effects.