Demographic Horizons™
Aon’s Demographic Horizons toolkit provides pension schemes, insurers, and reinsurers with a comprehensive framework to model all aspects of mortality, dependants proportion, and age difference, in key global markets. In particular, we have fully operational and locally-calibrated postcode mortality models for the United Kingdom, United States, Netherlands and Canada.
Demographic Horizons’ robust modelling combined with our understanding of client needs allows us to provide unrivalled levels of advice to pension schemes, insurers and reinsurers in these areas:
- Base mortality postcode modelling
- Granular experience analysis
- Dependants (spouses) modelling incorporating and combining all common data sources (postcode, write-outs, tracing and experience)
- Mortality improvements
- Longevity risk
Our emphasis is on robust and tempered prediction, making the best possible use of all available data and always including soundly-derived confidence intervals for the best estimates we produce.
This enables our clients to determine their best estimate assumptions, assess their demographic risk and refine their internal metrics with confidence.
Our web-based Studio provides our clients with direct and immediate access to our base mortality and dependants models, which they can use to perform and tailor their own analyses.
The Demographic Horizons team has:
- Provided best-estimate longevity and associated demographic advice to reinsurers in relation to pension plan-related transactions for over £125Bn of liability.
- Advised on best-estimate longevity and market pricing for EU-based insurance company transactions totalling €30Bn of defined benefit pensions back book liability in the period 2020 to 2023.
- Consulted on best-estimate longevity assumptions for pension risk transfers in the U.S. with total premiums exceeding $10Bn during 2023-2024.
- Assisted a major institution with a contested mortality review basis for a longevity swap for £2Bn that had been in place for over a decade.
If you would like more information, please click on the links to the right of this page, or contact the Demographic Horizons team.