The Year of the Vote: How Geopolitical Volatility Will Impact Businesses

The Year of the Vote: How Geopolitical Volatility Will Impact Businesses
Aon Insights Series UK

10 of 11

This insight is part 10 of 11 in this Collection.

May 31, 2024 3 mins

The Year of the Vote: How Geopolitical Volatility Will Impact Businesses

Companies that operate around the world need to have a global appreciation of the heightening geopolitical risk.

This year has widely been dubbed as the year of the election. Voters are set to hit the ballot box in over 70 countries over the course of 2024, including some of the most populous and powerful nations in the world. The results of these elections could have far-reaching knock-on effects, affecting foreign policy decisions and potentially disrupting the world order as we know it.

This is set against the backdrop of two conflicts that continue to dominate world affairs. First, there is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, where Ukraine is reliant on continuing military support from the West and NATO to defend itself. Although the US military aid package has finally been approved by Congress, Ukraine’s reliance on long-term military assistance combined with recent Russian advancements, means that a partitioned Ukraine is now a possibility. This would create challenges for the global economy, particularly through further disruptions to energy and food markets.

70+

countries in the world are scheduled to organise elections in 2024.

Quote icon

People always ask me when are things going back to normal. The answer is: this is normal.

Sir Alex Younger
Former Chief ("C") of the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6)

Second, the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza is causing global division with no obvious end in fighting or sign of peace in sight. While fighting was initially limited to Gaza, we have seen that this conflict can easily escalate. Businesses have already experienced disruptions to key trade routes due to the actions of the Houthis, but a wider Middle East conflict would have a deeper and more significant impact on global supply chains as well as affecting oil and gas prices.

Fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, the effects of inflation and shifts in fiscal and monetary policy mean that there is a higher likelihood of civil unrest around the world. In the past few years, there have been riots and protests throughout Latin America as well as a series of military coups and civil wars in the Sahel and West Africa. Taking Africa as an example, 17 countries through the continent are scheduled to organise elections in 2024 which, when coupled with the economic challenges these nations are already facing, exacerbates the existing political instability and could well lead to greater civil unrest.

This is a year that holds a significant amount of geopolitical risk and volatility. The issues raised here are, by virtue of being global in nature, widely interconnected. Indeed, each of these risks could potentially impact or intensify the others. It is important that companies that operate around the world have a global appreciation of the heightening geopolitical risk, think strategically about how these risks might affect their operations and consider credible risk transfer mechanisms to mitigate these risks.

Quote icon

If you as an organisation think that cyber is a tech problem, you are going to fail…

Sir Alex Younger
Former Chief ("C") of the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6)
Article by
  • Harrison David
    Director, Political Risk and Structured Credit Commercial Risk Solutions, Aon

Aon's Better Being Podcast

Our Better Being podcast series, hosted by Aon Chief Wellbeing Officer Rachel Fellowes, explores wellbeing strategies and resilience. This season we cover human sustainability, kindness in the workplace, how to measure wellbeing, managing grief and more.

Aon Insights Series UK

Expert Views on Today's Risk Capital and Human Capital Issues

Construction and Infrastructure

The construction industry is under pressure from interconnected risks and notable macroeconomic developments. Learn how your organization can benefit from construction insurance and risk management.

Cyber Labs

Stay in the loop on today's most pressing cyber security matters.

Cyber Resilience

Our Cyber Resilience collection gives you access to Aon’s latest insights on the evolving landscape of cyber threats and risk mitigation measures. Reach out to our experts to discuss how to make the right decisions to strengthen your organization’s cyber resilience.

Employee Wellbeing

Our Employee Wellbeing collection gives you access to the latest insights from Aon's human capital team. You can also reach out to the team at any time for assistance with your employee wellbeing needs.

Environmental, Social and Governance Insights

Explore Aon's latest environmental social and governance (ESG) insights.

Q4 2023 Global Insurance Market Insights

Our Global Insurance Market Insights highlight insurance market trends across pricing, capacity, underwriting, limits, deductibles and coverages.

Regional Results

How do the top risks on business leaders’ minds differ by region and how can these risks be mitigated? Explore the regional results to learn more.

Human Capital Analytics

Our Human Capital Analytics collection gives you access to the latest insights from Aon's human capital team. Contact us to learn how Aon’s analytics capabilities helps organizations make better workforce decisions.

Insights for HR

Explore our hand-picked insights for human resources professionals.

Workforce

Our Workforce Collection provides access to the latest insights from Aon’s Human Capital team on topics ranging from health and benefits, retirement and talent practices. You can reach out to our team at any time to learn how we can help address emerging workforce challenges.

Mergers and Acquisitions

Our Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) collection gives you access to the latest insights from Aon's thought leaders to help dealmakers make better decisions. Explore our latest insights and reach out to the team at any time for assistance with transaction challenges and opportunities.

Navigating Volatility

How do businesses navigate their way through new forms of volatility and make decisions that protect and grow their organizations?

Parametric Insurance

Our Parametric Insurance Collection provides ways your organization can benefit from this simple, straightforward and fast-paying risk transfer solution. Reach out to learn how we can help you make better decisions to manage your catastrophe exposures and near-term volatility.

Pay Transparency and Equity

Our Pay Transparency and Equity collection gives you access to the latest insights from Aon's human capital team on topics ranging from pay equity to diversity, equity and inclusion. Contact us to learn how we can help your organization address these issues.

Property Risk Management

Forecasters are predicting an extremely active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Take measures to build resilience to mitigate risk for hurricane-prone properties.

Technology

Our Technology Collection provides access to the latest insights from Aon's thought leaders on navigating the evolving risks and opportunities of technology. Reach out to the team to learn how we can help you use technology to make better decisions for the future.

Top 10 Global Risks

Trade, technology, weather and workforce stability are the central forces in today’s risk landscape.

Trade

Our Trade Collection gives you access to the latest insights from Aon's thought leaders on navigating the evolving risks and opportunities for international business. Reach out to our team to understand how to make better decisions around macro trends and why they matter to businesses.

Weather

With a changing climate, organizations in all sectors will need to protect their people and physical assets, reduce their carbon footprint, and invest in new solutions to thrive. Our Weather Collection provides you with critical insights to be prepared.

Workforce Resilience

Our Workforce Resilience collection gives you access to the latest insights from Aon's Human Capital team. You can reach out to the team at any time for questions about how we can assess gaps and help build a more resilience workforce.

More Like This

View All
View All
Subscribe CTA Banner